Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
